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| Date |
Allocation to Equities |
DJIA |
S&P 500 |
QQQQ |
Notes |
| Aug 14, 1982 |
100% |
777 |
Recommended
being fully invested on local radio in NY. Had been mildly
bullish on NBR in April. Recommended DCA prior to Aug 14th. |
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| Aug 21, 1987 |
100% |
2,710 |
Top of cyclical bull market |
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| Oct 19, 1987 |
100% |
1,841 |
Bottom of Cyclical Bear Market |
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| Jan 1988 |
0% |
2,015 |
Went to 100% Cash and told listeners he was bearish. |
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| Feb 1989 |
50% |
2,342 |
Dow up 27% from the bottom and up 16.2% from Jan 1988 level |
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| Nov 1989 |
75% |
2,650 |
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| Feb 1990 |
40% |
2,559 |
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| Mar 1990 |
50% |
2,635 |
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| April 1990 |
65% |
2,687 |
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| May 1990 |
75% |
2,656 |
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| July 1990 |
85% |
2,840 |
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| July 18, 1990 |
85% |
3,016 |
Bull Market Peak. Up 50% since Jan 1998 |
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| Oct 12, 1990 |
85% |
2,398 |
Gulf War Bottom, down 20.5% since peak Note: Market is back to where it was in Feb 1989 when Brinker went form 0% to 50%. |
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| Dec 1990 |
95% |
2,565 |
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| Jan 1991 |
100% |
2,550 |
Fully Invested |
| Date |
Allocation to Equities |
DJIA |
S&P 500 |
QQQQ |
Notes |
| Jan 1991 |
100% |
2,550 |
Fully Invested |
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| Bob Brinker made his radio fame by correctly staying fully invested for the next nine years while riding out a short bear market in 1998 and deriding "the bad news bears." | |||||
| Jan 2000 |
40% |
11,122 |
Brilliantly,
lowered Allocation withing 5.2% of S&P500 top. Money placed in cash
reserves for "counter trend rallies in an expected 8 to 20 year secular
bear market." |
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| Aug 7, 2000 |
35% |
10,688 |
65% in Cash Reserves. |
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| Oct 16, 2000 |
$83 |
Told Subscribers via mailed bulletin to put 20% to 50% of "cash reserves" into QQQ for a counter trend rally. Details here |
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| Nov 2000 |
35% |
Newsletter said to put money into QQQQ but model portfolios did not reflect this advice, a clever hedge for his record. |
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| Jan 8, 2001 |
35% |
62.44 |
Again suggested putting 20% to 50% of cash reserves in to QQQ. Reiterated this advice in his February through May 2000 Newsletters. Details here | ||
| June 8, 2001 |
$47.35 |
Placed QQQ on "Hold for Future Recovery" |
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| Sept 21, 2001 |
35% |
7,927 |
DJIA hit 7926.93 intraday |
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| Oct 02, 2001 |
35% |
8,950 |
$28.82 |
Official
recommendation is 35% but from lack of rebalancing and losses in the
35% he "officially" kept in the market, his Model Portfolio #1 in only
21% in equities. |
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October 8, 2001 Marketimer: "We do not anticipate a long-term negative effect on the investment markets as a direct result of the tragic events of September 11. ... the Wilshire 2000 index of all US stocks was already down 30% from its March, 2000 record high on September 10 prior to the terrorist attacks.... We also recommend subscribers with a position in the NASDAQ100 (QQQ) shares hold for recovery within our earlier percentage guidelines (20 to 50% of cash reserves)." On Oct 8, 2001: S&P500 = 1,051.33, DJIA = 8,950.59 & QQQ=28.82
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| Date | Allocation to Equities | DJIA | S&P 500 | QQQQ | Notes |
| Mar 12, 2002 |
35% |
10,586 |
DJIA up 28.5% from 9/23/01 So much for playing counter trend rallies Model Portfolio #1 was 21% in equities (not counting QQQ losses) |
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| Oct 9, 2002 |
35% |
7,286 |
$20.06 |
Official Bear Market Low and start of new cyclical bull market Model Portfolio #1 was 19% in equities (not counting QQQ losses) |
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| Mar 11, 2003 |
100% |
7,568 |
808 |
$24.01 |
Buy Bulletin Issued on Web Site before open based on March 10th close. No guidance given for existing QQQ positions. |
| Mar 15, 2003 |
100% |
Announces 100% to weekend audience |
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| Mar 17, 2003 |
100% |
8,142 |
863 |
$26.60 |
SPY=86.78 |
| Apr 5, 2003 |
100% |
8,070 |
858 |
$25.45 |
Recommends new equity purchases below S&P 810 with dollar cost averaging otherwise. |
| April 5, 2003: Marketimer: "In our view, the first
cyclical bear market has established the vicinity of a major bottom,
and that bottom area is essentially within the 789 to 810 range for the Standard and Poor's 500 Index. We regard the market as attractive for purchase anytime prices are trading within or below that price range." and
"Due
to the significant stock market rebound that began a few days after our
March 11 buy signal, we recommend that subscribers who did not take
advantage of the price weakness at that time take a disciplined
approach to new purchases. For example, a gradual dollar-cost-average strategy allows for investment into the market during periods of stock market weakness..."
(S&P500 = 858.47, QQQQ=$25.45 & DJIA = 8069.86) |
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| Date |
Allocation to Equities |
DJIA |
S&P 500 |
QQQQ |
Notes |
| May 2003 |
100% |
8,481 |
917 |
Says DCA on market weakness below S&P500 810 |
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| May 6, 2003 Marketimer: "In order to maximize upside potential, we recommend against chasing rallies in order to invest new money. . (The market rallied straight up without a bear to set a new S&P 500 record in June 2007!) In the event another test of the area of the bear market lows occurs below the 810 price level for the Standard and Poor's 500 index, we would regard such weakness as an additional buying opportunity. Alternatively, a gradual dollar-cost-averaging approach during periods of stock market weakness allows for investment into the market, keeping in mind the market may well remain volatile in the months ahead." (S&P500 = 916.92 & DJIA = 8480.09) | |||||
| June 2003 |
100% |
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| June 2003 Marketimer: ".....we believe that the U.S. stock market entered into a new secular bear market megatrend based on the March 24, 2000 Standard and Poor's 500 Index close of 1527.46. If past history is any guide investors will have to wait a very long time before they see that level materially exceeded. However a series of cyclical bear markets and cyclical bull markets appears inevitable within the secular bear market megatrend. ... We are not enthusiastic about investing new money into the market during period of strength, although a gradual dollar-cost-averaging approach is acceptable for those with a tolerance for further stock market volatility." | |||||
| June 2007 |
100% |
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| June 2007 Marketimer: "In our view, the valuation based secular bear
market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for
the S&P500 index (1527.46). and following the January, 2000 closing
high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006 at the bottom of the mid-term off-presidential election year correction."
and
"While secular market trends are interesting from an historical
standpoint, all Marketimer asset allocation decisions for our model
portfolios are based solely on signals generated by the Marketimer
stock market timing model." |
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| Date | Allocation to Equities | DJIA | S&P 500 | QQQQ | Notes |
| Kirk Lindstrom's May 31, 2007 Update on Bob Brinker's "5 Root Causes of a Bear Market" Bullish! |
Steve Thompson's June 2007 Update on Bob Brinker's Long Term Stock Market Timing Model Bullish! |
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| October 2007 |
100% |
13,895.63. |
1526.75 |
51.41 |
Dollar Cost Average. Lump sum mid 1400's |
| Although we do
not believe further weakness into the mid-1400's range must occur, we
remain comfortable with rating the market attractive for purchase
should any such additionalweakness occur. Above that price range, we
prefer a dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market investing.
All Marketimer® model portfolios remain fully invested. |
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| Dec. 2008 |
100% |
1481 |
Dollar Cost Average. Lump sum mid 1400's | ||
| “Marketimer subscribers have been able to
add to position on this short-term correction based on our
recommendation to view the stock market as attractive for purchase
on any weakness into the S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s range. Any minor
weakness below that level has been contained in the area of the August
15 correction bottom in the low-1400’s. Several excellent buying
opportunities occurred during the month of November." and "We continue to believe that a bear market (S&P Index decline in excess of 20%) is not on the radar screen at this time. We expect the bull market to continue at least well into 2008, and we look for significant stock market gains, including new S&P 500 record highs." |
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| January 2008 |
100% |
13,264.82 |
1468.36 | 45.35 |
Dollar Cost Average. Lump sum mid 1400's |
| Pg 3: “In
summary, the
Marketimer stock market timing model indicates that conditions are
favorable for the market as we enter 2008. We expect the S&P Index
to achieve new record highs this year and to reach the 1600’s rang in
the process. We continue to rate the market attractive for purchase on
any weakness into the S&P 500 Index mid-1400’s range.
Above this range we prefer a dollar-cost-average approach for new
purchases. All Marketimer model portfolios remain fully invested
as we enter 2008." |
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| January 20, 2008: Marketimer Special Subscriber Message: S&P 500 Index: 1325.19 => We recommend a dollar-cost-average
approach for new stock market investing until a definitive bottom area
is established. This should take place as a process which starts with
the formation of a bottom area, followed by a short-term rally,
followed by testing of the bottom area on reduced selling pressure. We are focusing our efforts on working to identify the area of a meaningful market bottom. There are no changes to our model portfolios.
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