Newsletter(s) Buy Given Target @ Final
Published in Target at Reached? Level
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Apr-May '96 Dow 5300 No
Jun-Sep '96 Dow 5400 No
Jan '97 Dow 6100 No
Feb '97 Dow 6500 No
Mar-Apr '97 Dow 6600 Yes
June '97 Dow 7000 No
Jul '97 Dow 7300 Yes
Nov '97 Dow 7300
or S&P 900 No
Dec '97 Dow 7400
or S&P 900 No
Jan '98 Dow 7500 No
Mar-Apr '98 Dow 8000 No
May-Jun '98 Dow 8500
or S&P 1050 No
Jul '98 Dow 8650 Yes @ DJIA 7379.7
August '98 Dow 8650 Yes @ DJIA 7379.7
or S&P 1100 Yes @ S&P 923.3
Sep '98 Buy now Yes
Oct '98 Buy now
up to S&P 1100 Yes
Nov-Dec '98 S&P 1100 No
Jan-Mar '99 S&P 1120 No
Apr-May '99 Dow 8800
or S&P 1160 No
Jun '99 S&P 1160 No
Oct '99 Dow 9600
or S&P 1210 No
Nov '99 Dow 9900 No
or S&P 1250 No
Jan. 8,2000 SELL 60% NOW
S&P500 = 1402.13, DJIA=11,122.65, QQQQ=86.25(*)
August 2000 Sell 5% more to 65% CASH
Oct 16, 2000 Put 20 to 50% of cash reserves into QQQQ
Mar. 11, '03 BUY NOW Return to fully invested
S&P500 = 807.48
April '03 S&P Range 858
789 to 810 No
May ’03 S&P 810 917 No
Jun ‘04 S&P 1100 1121 Yes
June '06 S&P 1250
Oct. '06 S&P 1250 1331 No
Dec. '06 S&P 1331 1401 No
Jan. '07 S&P 1347 1418 Open
Some of the Date between April 1996 and June 2004 compiled by Richard Palm
(*)Split adjusted price for QQQ (now QQQQ) ETF
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Marketimer Excerpts:
May 8, 1996: "In summary, we suggest staying bullish, buying any dips
below DJIA 5300 if they occur, and looking forward to the challenge of
the Dow 6000 level later this year."
April 7, 1997: "In summary, buy weakness under DJIA 6600 and look for a rally to new record highs by summer."
July 7, 1997: "Under 7300, we rate the U.S. market attractive for purchase for new subscribers who are underinvested."
July 8, 1998: "In the event the stock market tests the recent lows in
the area of DJIA 8650, we would regard such a test as a buying
opportunity for subscribers who find themselves underinvested."
June 7, 1999: "We view the S&P Index as attractive for purchase below the 1160 level."
Richard Palm wrote: "He identified so many buy points that never materialized that I am unable to convince myself that the above constitutes timing.
"
More to come... a work in progress!
January 8 2000: "The
Marketimer stock market timing model has turned unfavorable....We
recommend raising a 60% cash reserve at this time." (S&P500 = 1402.13 & DJIA = 11122.65, QQQQ=86.25)
October 9, 2000: "We recommend new subscribers use any residual strength that may occur in the 1469-1527 rage of the Standard and Poor's 500 Inded to position portfolios defensively.."
(S&P500 = 1434.32, DJIA = 10,784.485 & QQQQ=85.63)
October 16, 2000 Special Bulletin sent via mail: "Marketimer
is projecting a significant countertrend rally which is expected to be
led by the NASDAQ 100 index.... We recommend Marketimer subscribers
with aggressive objectives invest 30% to 50% of existing CASH RESERVES in QQQ shares in order to exploit this opportunity. Also we recommend subscribers with conservative objectives invest 20% to 30% of CASH RESERVES in the QQQ shares in order to take advantage of this opportunity.
(QQQ was $78 to $87 the week following that bulletin.)
October 8, 2001: "We
do not anticipate a long-term negative effect on the investment markets
as a direct result of the tragic events of September 11. ... the
Wilshire 2000 index of al US stocks was already down 30% from its
March, 2000 record high on September 10 prior to the terrorist
attacks.... We also recommend subscribers with a position in the
NASDAQ100 (QQQ) shares hold for recovery within our earlier
percentage guidelines."
(S&P500 = 1051.33 & DJIA = 8950.59, QQQ=28.82)
October 5, 2002: "We
recommend continuing to hold stock market cash reserves at this time...
We think a Marketimer buy signal will develop withing the next several
months. ."
(S&P500 = 7591.58 & DJIA = 815.26, QQQ=20.75)
March 11, 2003: "The
Marketimer long-term stock market timing model has returned to bullish
territory for the first time since January of Year 2000. Although
additional minor stock market weakness is possible, we believe the
markat has reached the vicinity of a major cyclical bear market
bottom.... We recommend investing all stock market cash reserves...(to
return to 100% equites for model portfolio #1 and #2)" (S&P500 = 807.48 , DJIA = 7568.18 & QQQ=24.01 )
April 5, 2003: "In our view, the first cyclical bear
market has established the vicinity of a major bottom, and that bottom
are is essentially within the 789 to 810 range for the Standard and Poor's 500 Index. We regard the market as attractive for purchase anytime prices are trading within or below that price range."
and
"Due to the significant stock market
rebound that began a few days after our March 11 buy signal, we
recommend that subscribers who did not take advantage of the price
weakness at that time take a disciplined approach to new
purchases. For example, a gradual dollar-cost-average strategy allows for investment into the market during periods of stock market weakness..."
(S&P500 = 858.47 & DJIA = 8069.86)
May 6, 2003: "in
order to maximize upside potential, we recommend against chasing
rallies in order to invest new money. In the event another test
of the area of the bear market lows occurs below the 810 price level for the Standard and Poor's 500 index, we would regard such weakness as an additional buying opportunity.
Alternatively, a gradual dollar-cost-averaging approach during periods
of stockmarket weakness allows for investment into the market, keeping
in mind the market may well remain volatile in the months ahead."
(S&P500 = 916.92 & DJIA = 8480.09)
June 8, 2004 “We view the market as attractive for purchase on dips below the 1100 level of the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index.”
October 2006: "We believe the
potential for any additional weakness in the vicinity of the S&P500
index 1250 level is linked to ..... If such weakness develops, we
recommend those seeing additional stock market exposure buy into any
such pullback." (S&P500 = 1,331 & DJIA = 11,670)
6% correction: 94% of 1,331 = 1250
December 2006: "In
our view, a meaningful stock market correction would be necessary in
order to set the stage for a decent buying opportunity. In order
for this to occur, a deecline of at least 5% to 10% would be necessary,
in our view." (S&P500 = 1,401 & DJIA = 12,221)
5% correction: 95% of 1,401= 1331
January 2007: "Although
we do not see evidence that this cyclical bull market has fully
matured, we would need to see a meaningful health-restoring correction
in order to create a buying opportuniyty for those seeking to add
significantly to equity holdings. In our view, this would require
a short-term pullback of at least 5% to 10%." (S&P500 = 1,418 & DJIA = 12,463)
5% correction: 95% of 1,418= 1347 & 95% of 12,463=11,839
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